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Number of infections suffered by a focal individual in a two-strain SIS-model with partial cross-immunity

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Almaraz Luego, Elena and Gómez-Corral, Antonio (2019) Number of infections suffered by a focal individual in a two-strain SIS-model with partial cross-immunity. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 42 (12). pp. 4318-4330. ISSN 0170-4214

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Abstract

We study a stochastic model for the spread of two pathogen strains –termed type-1 and type-2 – amongst a homogeneously mixing community consisting of a finite number of individuals. In the model we assume partial cross-immunity,exogenous streams of infection, and that the degree of severity of a newly infective individual depends on who this infective individual was infected by. The aim is to characterize the joint probability distribution of the numbers M1 and M2 of type-1 and type-2 infections suffered by a focal individual during an outbreak of the disease. We present iterative procedures for computing the probability mass function of (M1, M2) under the assumption that the initial state of the focal individual is known, and a numerical study of the model is performed to investigate the influence of certain key parameters on the spread of resistant bacteria in hospitals.


Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Computational methods in Markov chains; Continuous-time Markov chains on discrete state spaces; Epidemiology
Palabras clave (otros idiomas):Cadena de Markov; Modelo de Markov; Epidemiología
Subjects:Sciences > Mathematics
Sciences > Mathematics > Applied statistics
Sciences > Statistics > Operations research
ID Code:63670
Deposited On:20 Jan 2021 11:41
Last Modified:21 Jan 2021 08:16

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