Publication: Modelización estocástica y generación de escenarios para gestión de desastres
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2021-08-23
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
La incertidumbre en los problemas de decisión plantea dos grandes retos: el tratamiento de la incertidumbre incorporándolo a un modelo de decisión, y su caracterización, normalmente a través de escenarios. En esta tesis se abordan ambos problema aplicados a la gestión de desastres en las fases previas a estos (prevención y preparación). Además de la alta aleatoriedad inherente a los desastres, se considera también la componente espacial de estos fenómenos que conlleva un aumento sustancial de la dificultad para tratarla. El estudio de la modelización estocástica y la generación de escenarios se particularizará en dos contextos diferentes, los desastres naturales en países en desarrollo y los incendios forestales..
Uncertainty in decision problems poses two major challenges: the treatment of uncertainty incorporating it into a decision model, and its characterisation, usually through scenarios. This dissertation addresses both problems as applied to disaster management in the pre-disaster phases (prevention and preparedness). The spatial component of these phenomena is also considered, which leads to a substantial increase in its difficulty. The study of stochastic modelling and scenario generation will focus on two different contexts, natural disasters in developing countries and wildfires...
Uncertainty in decision problems poses two major challenges: the treatment of uncertainty incorporating it into a decision model, and its characterisation, usually through scenarios. This dissertation addresses both problems as applied to disaster management in the pre-disaster phases (prevention and preparedness). The spatial component of these phenomena is also considered, which leads to a substantial increase in its difficulty. The study of stochastic modelling and scenario generation will focus on two different contexts, natural disasters in developing countries and wildfires...
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas, leída el 23-06-2021