Interaction between decadal-to-multidecadal oceanic variability and sudden stratospheric warmings



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Ayargüena Porras, Blanca and Manzini, Elisa and Calvo Fernández, Natalia and Matei, Daniela (2021) Interaction between decadal-to-multidecadal oceanic variability and sudden stratospheric warmings. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences . ISSN 0077-8923

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Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most important phenomena of the wintertime boreal stratospheric variability.During SSWs, the polar temperature increases abruptly, and easterlies prevail in the stratosphere. Their effects extend farther from the polar stratosphere, affecting near-surface circulation. According to observations, SSWs are not equally distributed in time, with decades experiencing very few events, while others experiencing SSWs almost every winter. Some sources of this SSW multidecadal variability can be traced back to sea surface temperature changes.Here, we investigate the effects of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlanticmultidecadal variability (AMV) on SSWs. We use for the first time a large ensemble of historical experiments to examine the modulation of the frequency, tropospheric precursors, and impact of SSWs by the PDV and AMV.We find a strong impact of the PDV on the occurrence of SSWs, with a higher SSW frequency for the positive phase of the PDV. This PDV influence ismediated by constructive interference of PDV anomalies with tropospheric stationary waves. The main effect of AMV is, instead, a modulation of the tropospheric response to SSWs, a finding that can be useful for predicting the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.

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CRUE-CSIC (Acuerdos Transformativos 2021)

© 2021 The Authors. B.A. and N.C. were supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities
through the JeDiS (RTI2018-096402-B-I00) project. This research is part of POLARCSIC activities. E.M. and D.M. acknowledge the support of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through the JPI Climate/JPIOceansNextG-Climate Science-ROADMAP (FKZ: 01LP2002A) Project, and of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme through the Blue-Action Project, Grant Agreement No. 727852. We are grateful to Mikhail Dobrynin for having conducted the MPI-ESM historical experiments with daily outputs, to Alexey Karpechko for discussion on SSW definitions, and to Evangelos Tyrlis for theMPI internal review. The simulations were performed at the facilities of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). For the analysis, we acknowledge the use of resources from the bm0966 and bm1190 projects.

Uncontrolled Keywords:Sea-ice loss; Atmospheric response; Arctic amplification; CMIP5 simulations; Atlantic; Frequency; Climatology; Oscillation; Modulaton; Mechanisms
Subjects:Sciences > Physics > Atmospheric physics
ID Code:67701
Deposited On:20 Sep 2021 07:15
Last Modified:18 Feb 2022 13:01

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