Analysis of the October 2014 subtropical cyclone using the WRF and the HARMONIE-AROME numerical models: Assessment against observations



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Quitián Hernández, L. and Bolgiani, P. and Santos Muñoz, D. and Sastre Marugán, Mariano and Díaz Fernández, Javier and González Alemán, Juan Jesús and Farrán, J.I. and López, L. and Valero Rodríguez, Francisco and Martín, M.L. (2021) Analysis of the October 2014 subtropical cyclone using the WRF and the HARMONIE-AROME numerical models: Assessment against observations. Atmospheric research, 260 . ISSN 0169-8095

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Subtropical cyclones (STCs) are low-pressure systems characterized by having a thermal hybrid structure and sharing tropical and extratropical characteristics. These cyclones are widely studied due to their harmful impacts, in some cases, similar to those caused by hurricanes or tropical storms. From a numerical modeling point of view, they are considered a challenge on account of their rapid intensification. That is the reason why this paper analyzes the simulations of the STC that occurred in October 2014 near the Canary Islands through two highresolution numerical models: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and HARMONIE-AROME. In this study, the simulations obtained with both models of this STC are analyzed versus different observational data. METAR data are used to validate some surface simulated variables throughout the STC life while soundings are chosen to study the tropospheric behavior. Finally, MSG-SEVIRI satellite brightness temperature is used to be compared to those brightness temperatures simulated by both models to give information of the cloud top spatial structure of this atmospheric system. The 2 m temperature, 2 m dew-point temperature, and 10 m wind speed variables do not show significant deviations when carrying out the validation of both models against the available METAR data. It is outstanding the good results found for the HARMONIE-AROME model when analyzing the temperature sounding for both analyzed dates. Additionally, regarding the wind speed sounding, better results are presented in general by the HARMONIE-AROME model, being the WRF model slightly better during the pre-STC stage. Moreover, the skillfulness of the HARMONIE-AROME model is highlighted when simulating the infrared brightness temperature and cloud distribution compared to the WRF model.

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CRUE-CSIC (Acuerdos Transformativos 2021)

© 2021 The Author(s). This work was partially supported by research projects: PID2019- 105306RB-I00, PCIN-2014-013-C07-04, and PCIN2016-080 (UE ERANET Plus NEWA Project), CGL2016-78702-C2-1-R and CGL2016- 78702-C2-2-R (SAFEFLIGHT project), FEI-EU-17-16 and the two ECMWF Special Projects (SPESMART and SPESVALE). JJGA is supported by the FJC2018-035821 grant and JDF acknowledges the grant supported from the MINECO-FPI program (BES-2017). The authors would like to thank Ángel García Gago for the post-processing of some figures and the skill scores calculations.

Uncontrolled Keywords:Brightness temperature; Sensitivity-analysis; Tropical transition; PBL schemes; Simulation; Parameterization; Convection; Predictability; Resolution; Forecasts
Subjects:Sciences > Physics > Atmospheric physics
ID Code:67703
Deposited On:20 Sep 2021 07:16
Last Modified:18 Feb 2022 12:52

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