Projected changes in the season of hot days in the Middle East and North Africa

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Varela, Rubén and Rodríguez-Díaz, Laura and Barriopedro Cepero, David and Castro, Maite de and Costoya, Xurxo and García Herrera, Ricardo and Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho (2021) Projected changes in the season of hot days in the Middle East and North Africa. International journal of climatology . ISSN 0899-8418

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.7360




Abstract

The present study analyses changes in the timing and duration of the hot days season over the Middle East and North Africa region from 1970 to 2099 using model simulations of 11 regional models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, a nonsymmetrical lengthening of the hot days season is projected, with a tendency to extend more into spring than into autumn. By the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario, Western Africa and the Persian Gulf display a hot days season starting 60 days earlier than in the historical period (1970–1999) (May vs. July, respectively). Southernmost latitudes are the most affected by a later retreat of the hot days season, of up to 60 days with respect to the historical period (October vs. August). The length of the extreme season is projected to increase between 100 and 120 days for the southernmost latitudes and the Persian Gulf resulting in nearly four more months with hot days conditions.


Item Type:Article
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© 2021 The Authors. This work was partially supported by the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) under the project “Prevencion de Riesgos de Inundaciones y Sequías en la Cuenca Internacional del Miño-Limia” Interreg-Poctep 2014–2020 (EU. INTERREG-POCTEP 2014-2020, 0034-RISC_ML_6_E) and by Xunta de Galicia under the project ED431C 2017/64-GRC (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva).

Uncontrolled Keywords:Climate-change projections; Mortality risk; Heat-stress; Cosmo-CLM; Temperature; Summer; Impacts; Cordex; Waves; Population
Subjects:Sciences > Physics > Atmospheric physics
ID Code:68673
Deposited On:11 Nov 2021 11:43
Last Modified:15 Nov 2021 11:56

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