Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event

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González Alemán, Juan J. and Grams, Christian M. and Ayarzagüena Parras, Blanca and Zurita Gotor, Pablo and Domeisen, Daniela I. V. and Gómara Cardalliaguet, Iñigo and Rodríguez de Fonseca, Belén and Vitart, Frédéric (2021) Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (1). ISSN 0094-8276

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095464



Abstract

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can have a strong impact on the troposphere. Their fingerprint is often associated with the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and extreme weather with high societal impact. However, the mechanisms behind this downward impact are not well understood. We investigate this surface impact through its associated predictability limits, by studying the 2018 SSW event. We search for predictability barriers that occurred after the onset of the SSW and before its surface impact. It is found that dynamical tropospheric events consisting of two cyclogenesis events were the main reasons for these predictability barriers in the prediction of negative NAM/NAO anomalies reaching the surface. This work corroborates that individual synoptic events might constitute predictability barriers during the downward impact of SSW events, and thereby sheds light on stratosphere-troposphere coupling.


Item Type:Article
Additional Information:

CRUE-CSIC (Acuerdos Transformativos 2021)

Subjects:Sciences > Physics > Atmospheric physics
ID Code:70590
Deposited On:18 Feb 2022 12:14
Last Modified:18 Feb 2022 13:22

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