Publication: Planeando el futuro: un estudio sobre la desigualdad en la construcción de expectativas formativas
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2022-03-02
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
La presente investigación ha analizado la evolución de las expectativas formativas entre los años 2003 y 2018 en España, y los mecanismos y estrategias que generan desigualdad por origen social en los planes formativos del alumnado español. Para ello, se emplea información del estudio PISA, que en las oleadas de los años 2003 y 2018 preguntó al alumnado participante por su expectativa de matriculación en cada alternativa postobligatoria. A partir de dicha información se ha analizado la expectativa vertical de matriculación en la Educación Secundaria Superior, la expectativa horizontal de matriculación en el Bachillerato entre aquellos que esperan matricularse en la Educación Secundaria Superior, la expectativa vertical de matriculación en la Educación Terciaria y la expectativa horizontal de matriculación en la universidad entre aquellos que esperan matricularse en la Educación Terciaria. Utilizando modelos de regresión logística binaria, se ha observado que la ambición formativa del alumnado español ha aumentado entre 2003 y 2018, es decir, ha aumentado la proporción del alumnado que espera matricularse en la Educación Secundaria Superior y, especialmente, en la Educación Terciaria. A través de un procedimiento de simulación contrafactual se ha podido observar que el cambio en la estructura social y educativa del país solo contribuye marginalmente a dicha evolución. El crecimiento en las expectativas del alumnado español se debe fundamentalmente a la mayor ambición formativa del alumnado de extracción social baja y rendimiento académico bajo, lo que ha convertido al rendimiento en un peor predictor de las expectativas (reduciendo los efectos primarios del origen social) y ha igualado las expectativas del alumnado de distinta extracción social, pero igual rendimiento (reduciendo los efectos secundarios del origen social). El resultado último de todo ello es un descenso de la desigualdad vertical en los planes formativos del alumnado español...
In this work, I analyse the evolution of educational expectations between 2003 and 2018 in Spain, and the mechanisms and strategies that generate inequality by social origin in those expectations. To do that, I employ data from the 2003 and 2018 waves of the Programme for the International Student Assessment (PISA), where students were questioned about their expectation of enrolment in all post-compulsory alternatives. Drawing on that information, I study the vertical expectation of enrolment in Upper Secondary Education, the horizontal expectation of enrolment in Baccalaureate among those who expect to access Upper Secondary Education, the vertical expectation of enrolment in Tertiary Education, and the horizontal expectation of enrolment in the university among those who expect to access Tertiary Education. Using binary logistic regression models, it has been observed that the educational ambition of Spanish students has increased between 2003 and 2018, i.e. the proportion of students who expect to enrol in Upper Secondary Education and, especially, in Tertiary Education has increased. Through a counterfactual simulation procedure, it has been observed that the change in the social and educational structure of the country only marginally contributes to this evolution. The growth in the expectations of Spanish students is mainly due to the greater educational ambition of students from low social backgrounds and low academic performance, which has made performance a worse predictor of expectations (reducing the primary effects of social origin) and has equalised the expectations of students from different social backgrounds, but with the same performance (reducing the secondary effects of social origin). The ultimate result of all this is a decrease in vertical inequality in the educational plans of Spanish students...
In this work, I analyse the evolution of educational expectations between 2003 and 2018 in Spain, and the mechanisms and strategies that generate inequality by social origin in those expectations. To do that, I employ data from the 2003 and 2018 waves of the Programme for the International Student Assessment (PISA), where students were questioned about their expectation of enrolment in all post-compulsory alternatives. Drawing on that information, I study the vertical expectation of enrolment in Upper Secondary Education, the horizontal expectation of enrolment in Baccalaureate among those who expect to access Upper Secondary Education, the vertical expectation of enrolment in Tertiary Education, and the horizontal expectation of enrolment in the university among those who expect to access Tertiary Education. Using binary logistic regression models, it has been observed that the educational ambition of Spanish students has increased between 2003 and 2018, i.e. the proportion of students who expect to enrol in Upper Secondary Education and, especially, in Tertiary Education has increased. Through a counterfactual simulation procedure, it has been observed that the change in the social and educational structure of the country only marginally contributes to this evolution. The growth in the expectations of Spanish students is mainly due to the greater educational ambition of students from low social backgrounds and low academic performance, which has made performance a worse predictor of expectations (reducing the primary effects of social origin) and has equalised the expectations of students from different social backgrounds, but with the same performance (reducing the secondary effects of social origin). The ultimate result of all this is a decrease in vertical inequality in the educational plans of Spanish students...
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociología, leída el 14-10-2021