A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19



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Álvarez Mon, Melchor and Ortega, Miguel A. and Gasulla, Óscar and Fortuny Profitós, Jordi and Mazaira Font, Ferran A. and Saurina, Pablo and Monserrat, Jorge and Plana, María N. and Troncoso, Daniel and Sanz Moreno, José and Muñoz, Benjamin and Arranz, Alberto and Varona, Jose F. and Lopez Escobar, Alejandro and Asúnsolo del Barco, Angel (2021) A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19. Journal of Personalized Medicine, 11 (1). p. 36. ISSN 2075-4426

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm11010036


This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February–June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (<5%), medium-risk level (5–20%), and high-risk level (>20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU–death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:COVID-19; C-reactive protein; oxygen saturation; ICU; death; predictive model
Subjects:Medical sciences > Medicine > Pneumology
Medical sciences > Medicine > Public health
ID Code:71661
Deposited On:20 Apr 2022 14:48
Last Modified:20 Apr 2022 16:06

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