Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon



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Divino, Jose Angelo and McAleer, Michael (2009) Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon. [ Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE); nº 13, 2009, ] (Unpublished)

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The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Pará (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil’s North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Pará, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.

Item Type:Working Paper or Technical Report
Uncontrolled Keywords:Brazilian Amazon; International Tourism Demand; Time Series Modelling; Conditional Volatility Models; Forecasting.
Subjects:Social sciences > Economics > World economy
JEL:C22, C53, Q23
Series Name:Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)
ID Code:8692
Deposited On:24 Mar 2009 12:07
Last Modified:09 Jun 2017 09:06

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