Publication: Políticas de ajuste y competitividad. Devaluación salarial y devaluación nominal en la Argentina de la convertibilidad y de la post-convertibilidad
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2017-01-17
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
En la presente investigación se aborda el estudio de las políticas de estabilización y de las reformas estructurales acometidas bajo los auspicios del FMI y del Banco Mundial en la Argentina de Carlos Menem, en las que, junto con el ancla cambiaria con el dólar conocida como «Convertibilidad», se implantó una serie de medidas con efectos concretos sobre la distribución funcional del ingreso. También se estudiarán las medidas de urgencia asumidas en 2002 por el gobierno de Eduardo Duhalde en respuesta a la crisis de finales de los años noventa, entre las que destaca notablemente el abandono del régimen de la Convertibilidad con una fuerte devaluación del peso frente al dólar. Nuestro objetivo es analizar las citadas medidas y sus efectos en términos de competitividad comercial, conceptualizada como ventaja absoluta bilateral frente a la economía de EE.UU. bajo un marco teórico fundamentado en el enfoque clásico-marxiano. Para ello, y con fundamento en dicho marco teórico, se ha construido un indicador de tipo de cambio real en el que se recogen los precios relativos, los salarios reales, la productividad del trabajo (medida por su inversa: los requerimientos de trabajo unitarios verticalmente integrados) y el tipo de cambio nominal como elementos que determinan la competitividad comercial en una rama de actividad o en un agregado de ellas. En concreto, se ha estudiado la competitividad comercial del agregado de ramas susceptibles de comercio internacional, lo cual se ha complementado con el estudio desagregado a nivel de 24 ramas de bienes y servicios comercializables internacionalmente (de un total de 34 ramas en que se ha clasificado la actividad económica). Los datos de partida para ello han sido los índices de precios al consumo y del productor, las tablas input-output, las estadísticas de empleo, salarios y producción de los dos países objeto de comparación, así como la serie de tipo de cambio dólar-peso. Los resultados obtenidos en el análisis cuantitativo han corroborado que, ante la imposibilidad de una devaluación nominal, durante la primera mitad de la década de 1990 se produjo una devaluación salarial, materializada en una caída de la ratio entre los salarios reales argentinos y los estadounidenses. Por otro lado, la salida de la Convertibilidad implicó una abrupta devaluación nominal, pero estuvo acompañada, a su vez, de una devaluación salarial. La conclusión general de la investigación es la siguiente: las políticas de ajuste supusieron una alteración sustancial de la distribución funcional del ingreso en detrimento de las rentas del trabajo. Ello fue el principal factor que operó en favor de la competitividad comercial de Argentina frente a EE.UU., en ausencia del efecto otros factores potencialmente beneficiosos como los precios relativos o la productividad. Argentina continuó, no obstante, situándose en desventaja absoluta con respecto a EE.UU. en el plano comercial durante todo el periodo. La abrupta devaluación del peso de 2002 revirtió tal situación comercial, pero supuso un renovado ajuste sobre las rentas del trabajo...
The following research addresses the study of stabilization policies and structural reforms overcame under the sponsorship of IMF and the World Bank during Carlos Menem’s Argentina, in which, together with the currency pegging to the US dollar, known as «Convertibility», a series of measures with specific effects on functional distribution of the income were established. Moreover, emergency measures assumed in 2002 by Eduardo Duhalde’s government as a response to the late 90s crisis, as the abandonment of Convertibility regime and subsequent strong devaluation of the Argentinian peso against the dollar, will be considered. Our goal is to analyze the aforementioned measures and their effects in terms of commercial competitiveness, conceptualized as a bilateral absolute advantage versus the USA’s economy, under a theoretical framework based on the classic-Marxian approach. To this end, and based on the already stated theoretical framework, a real exchange rate indicator in which relative prices, real salaries, work productivity (measured by its inverse: unitary work requirements vertically integrated) and the nominal exchange rate as elements that condition commercial competitiveness in an activity branch or an aggregate of them has been built. More precisely, commercial competitiveness of the aggregate of internationally tradable branches has been analyzed, thus complemented with the dissociated study of 24 branches of internationally marketable goods and services (out of 34 branches in which economic activity has been classified). For such purpose, the start-up data have been the consumer and producer price indexes, input-output tables, employment statistics, salaries and production of both countries subject to be compared, as well as the series of dollar-peso exchange type. The outcomes obtained in the quantitative analysis have confirmed that, facing the impossibility of a currency devaluation, during the first half of the 1990 decade, a salary devaluation happened, materialized in a rate drop between the real Argentinean and US American salaries. On the other hand, the end of Convertibility implied a deep currency devaluation, but it was, at the same time, accompanied by a salary devaluation. The general conclusion of the present research is the following: adjustment policies meant a considerable alteration of the functional income allocation at the expense of work incomes. This was the main factor that favoured trade competitiveness of Argentina versus the USA, facing the lack of effect of other factors, potentially beneficial, as relative prices or productivity. Nevertheless, Argentina continued positioning itself in absolute disadvantage versus the USA throughout the whole period. The steep devaluation of the peso in 2002 reverted such situation, but implied a renewed adjustment over labor income...
The following research addresses the study of stabilization policies and structural reforms overcame under the sponsorship of IMF and the World Bank during Carlos Menem’s Argentina, in which, together with the currency pegging to the US dollar, known as «Convertibility», a series of measures with specific effects on functional distribution of the income were established. Moreover, emergency measures assumed in 2002 by Eduardo Duhalde’s government as a response to the late 90s crisis, as the abandonment of Convertibility regime and subsequent strong devaluation of the Argentinian peso against the dollar, will be considered. Our goal is to analyze the aforementioned measures and their effects in terms of commercial competitiveness, conceptualized as a bilateral absolute advantage versus the USA’s economy, under a theoretical framework based on the classic-Marxian approach. To this end, and based on the already stated theoretical framework, a real exchange rate indicator in which relative prices, real salaries, work productivity (measured by its inverse: unitary work requirements vertically integrated) and the nominal exchange rate as elements that condition commercial competitiveness in an activity branch or an aggregate of them has been built. More precisely, commercial competitiveness of the aggregate of internationally tradable branches has been analyzed, thus complemented with the dissociated study of 24 branches of internationally marketable goods and services (out of 34 branches in which economic activity has been classified). For such purpose, the start-up data have been the consumer and producer price indexes, input-output tables, employment statistics, salaries and production of both countries subject to be compared, as well as the series of dollar-peso exchange type. The outcomes obtained in the quantitative analysis have confirmed that, facing the impossibility of a currency devaluation, during the first half of the 1990 decade, a salary devaluation happened, materialized in a rate drop between the real Argentinean and US American salaries. On the other hand, the end of Convertibility implied a deep currency devaluation, but it was, at the same time, accompanied by a salary devaluation. The general conclusion of the present research is the following: adjustment policies meant a considerable alteration of the functional income allocation at the expense of work incomes. This was the main factor that favoured trade competitiveness of Argentina versus the USA, facing the lack of effect of other factors, potentially beneficial, as relative prices or productivity. Nevertheless, Argentina continued positioning itself in absolute disadvantage versus the USA throughout the whole period. The steep devaluation of the peso in 2002 reverted such situation, but implied a renewed adjustment over labor income...
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Aplicada I (Economía Internacional y Desarrollo), leída el 17-12-2015