Publication: Análisis de engelamiento y nevadas en la Península Ibérica mediante modelos numéricos
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2017-03-29
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
Año tras año no cesan de aumentar las pérdidas tanto económicas como personales causadas por desastres naturales. Durante las últimas décadas ha aumentado la exposición ante ciertos riesgos meteorológicos, debido principalmente al aumento de la población y la construcción de viviendas e infraestructuras en zonas inadecuadas. Así mismo, es posible que dentro del actual escenario de calentamiento global se esté incrementando tanto la virulencia como la frecuencia con la que aparecen determinados fenómenos meteorológicos. Considerando este escenario resulta de vital importancia la mejora del conocimiento de estos fenómenos, con el fin de conocer con precisión y con la mayor antelación posible el alcance que pudiera tener un determinado fenómeno meteorológico. Esto permitiría reducir la vulnerabilidad al riesgo y, de esta forma, minimizar los daños provocados. Con este propósito, en esta memoria de tesis doctoral se pretende analizar en detalle determinados riesgos meteorológicos. Concretamente, esta investigación se va a enfocar en el análisis mediante modelos numéricos de predicción meteorológica de episodios de engelamiento y nevadas registrados en la península ibérica. En la actualidad todavía existe elevada incertidumbre a la hora de predecir de forma adecuada este tipo de episodios, lo que dificulta la toma de decisiones en situaciones de emergencia. Durante los últimos años, el gran desarrollo de la informática ha posibilitado un gran avance de los modelos numéricos, permitiendo anticiparse a las condiciones atmosféricas esperadas para las próximas horas, días e incluso meses. Debido a la pequeña escala en la que se desarrollan los fenómenos meteorológicos analizados en esta memoria de tesis doctoral, los modelos numéricos de baja resolución espacial generalmente empleados en la predicción operativa no los detectan con precisión. Además, el conocimiento de las condiciones microfísicas y termodinámicas asociadas con el engelamiento y nevadas no es totalmente preciso hoy día. El modelo que se ha utilizado en esta investigación es el Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). Se ha elegido por ser un modelo mesoescalar que permite realizar simulaciones con una elevada resolución tanto espacial como temporal. Además, dispone de varias parametrizaciones seleccionables según el fenómeno meteorológico que se desee estudiar. Esto permite que, según la zona sobre la que se vaya a aplicar la modelización, se pueda analizar qué parametrización se ajusta mejor a las particularidades del emplazamiento. Se trata de un modelo de código abierto, con las ventajas que este hecho ofrece frente a los modelos de uso restringido...
In recent years both personal and economic losses caused by natural disasters are increasing steadily. During the last decades, exposure to certain weather risks has grown mainly due to increased population and construction of housing and infrastructure in inappropriate areas. In the current frame of global warming it is also possible that both virulence and frequency of certain meteorological phenomena are increasing. Considering this scenario, it is vital to improve the knowledge of these phenomena in order to know accurately and as early as possible the magnitude that could have a particular weather phenomenon. This would reduce vulnerability to risk and, thus, it would minimize the damage. For this purpose, the aim of this thesis is to analyze in detail certain weather risks. Specifically, this research will be focus on the analysis of icing and snow episodes recorded in the Iberian Peninsula by numerical weather prediction models . Nowadays there is still considerable uncertainty when it comes to adequately forecast such events, which makes very difficult the decision-making process during emergency situations. In recent years, the rapid growth of information technology has enabled a breakthrough of numerical models, allowing the anticipation to the forecasted weather for the next few hours, days or even months. Because of the small scale in which weather phenomena discussed in this thesis are developed, numerical models of low spatial resolution do not forecast accurately these episodes. In addition, knowledge of microphysical and thermodynamic conditions associated with snow and icing is not completely accurate today. TheWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in this thesis. It has been chosen because it is a mesoscale model that allows simulations with high resolution in both space and time. It also has several selectable settings according to the weather phenomenon studied. This allows that, depending on the area on which the model is to be applied, different parameterizations can be analyzed in order to find the best suited to the particular site. It is an open source model, with the advantages that this offers over restricted use models...
In recent years both personal and economic losses caused by natural disasters are increasing steadily. During the last decades, exposure to certain weather risks has grown mainly due to increased population and construction of housing and infrastructure in inappropriate areas. In the current frame of global warming it is also possible that both virulence and frequency of certain meteorological phenomena are increasing. Considering this scenario, it is vital to improve the knowledge of these phenomena in order to know accurately and as early as possible the magnitude that could have a particular weather phenomenon. This would reduce vulnerability to risk and, thus, it would minimize the damage. For this purpose, the aim of this thesis is to analyze in detail certain weather risks. Specifically, this research will be focus on the analysis of icing and snow episodes recorded in the Iberian Peninsula by numerical weather prediction models . Nowadays there is still considerable uncertainty when it comes to adequately forecast such events, which makes very difficult the decision-making process during emergency situations. In recent years, the rapid growth of information technology has enabled a breakthrough of numerical models, allowing the anticipation to the forecasted weather for the next few hours, days or even months. Because of the small scale in which weather phenomena discussed in this thesis are developed, numerical models of low spatial resolution do not forecast accurately these episodes. In addition, knowledge of microphysical and thermodynamic conditions associated with snow and icing is not completely accurate today. TheWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in this thesis. It has been chosen because it is a mesoscale model that allows simulations with high resolution in both space and time. It also has several selectable settings according to the weather phenomenon studied. This allows that, depending on the area on which the model is to be applied, different parameterizations can be analyzed in order to find the best suited to the particular site. It is an open source model, with the advantages that this offers over restricted use models...
Description
Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astronomía II, leída el 12-02-2016