Publication: Los enclaves de la violencia en Colombia, 1998-2012
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2016-04-19
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
El propósito fundamental de esta tesis doctoral es el de comprender cuáles y a qué responden los cambios de la geografía de la violencia derivada del conflicto armado colombiano entre los años 1998 y 2012. Así, la hipótesis fundamental es la de plantear una creciente periferialización del conflicto armado, que durante estos años, ha experimentado un mayor arraigo, en lo que a violencia armada de las FARC y del ELN se trata, en enclaves predominantemente fronterizos. Esta periferialización se corrobora con base en cuatro tendencias que, analizadas con profundidad, ocupan buena parte de la tesis. En primer lugar, la mayor concurrencia de las guerrillas de las FARC y el ELN sobre escenarios con cultivos ilícitos. Es decir, tanto las FARC como el ELN pasan a concentrar su presencia y activismo en escenarios cocaleros, lo cual invita a pensar en una mayor dependencia de estos en lo que a la continuidad del conflicto armado se trata. En segundo lugar, las políticas de seguridad acontecidas en Colombia entre 1998 y 2012, especialmente las dirigidas bajo la presidencia de Andrés Pastrana (1998-2002) y Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), han obtenido importantes resultados, en lo que a minimizar la presencia guerrillera, en enclaves centrales del país como Cundinamarca, Santander, Boyacá, Caldas, Quindío, Risaralda y buena parte de la costa Atlántica. Sin embargo, y a pesar de tratarse de prioridades militares, en el nororiente del país, especialmente en Arauca y Norte de Santander; en el suroccidente, principalmente en Cauca, Nariño, Huila y Tolima; y en el eje Meta – Caquetá –Putumayo, las tendencias de activismo guerrillero no solo se han mantenido constantes sino que, además, se han incrementado. A lo anterior no afectó el paramilitarismo, en la medida en que se descarta que éste, verdaderamente, haya influido en las dinámicas de expulsión de la guerrilla sobre aquellos departamentos donde coincidieron en tiempo y lugar. Todo lo contrario, con la excepción de Antioquia y algunas regiones de la costa Atlántica, no se puede apreciar, con base en los indicadores que se plantean, que verdaderamente el factor paramilitar influyese en la reubicación geográfica de las guerrillas, especialmente de las FARC. Finalmente, la violencia estructural, si bien no se aborda como factor explicativo y causal del conflicto armado, sí que se muestra como una variable muy a tener en cuenta en las tendencias de cambio y continuidad de la violencia directa de las guerrillas. Aquellos departamentos con mayor presencia de FARC y ELN son, igualmente, buena parte de los departamentos con menores niveles de desarrollo económico y social del país. Asimismo, son en buena medida departamentos con gran arraigo de cultivos ilícitos, lo cual, se acaba consolidando como un binomio de alto valor agregado a efectos de atraer una mayor presencia guerrillera y dificultar un mayor éxito en lo que concierne a las políticas de seguridad. A todo lo anterior se llega gracias al análisis de las cartografías facilitadas por el Observatorio de Derechos Humanos y Derechos Internacional Humanitario adscrito, hasta 2014, a la Vicepresidencia de la República, y por medio de cuestionarios a 221 alcaldías del país y entrevistas en profundidad con actores involucrados en el conflicto armado, tanto del nivel gubernamental y de la Fuerza Pública, como de las FARC, el ELN, las AUC o las instancias garantes de los Derechos Humanos – personeros – en la institucionalidad local.
The main purpose of this doctoral thesis is to understand what changes have occurred in the geography of violence stemming from Colombia's armed conflict between 1998 and 2012. Thus, the fundamental hypothesis is to establish an increasing peripheralization the armed conflict that has increased and entrenched over the years, in which armed violence of the FARC and the ELN appears in predominantly border scenarios. This is corroborated on four trends that are analyzed in depth, occupying much of the thesis. First, the largest gathering of the guerrillas of the FARC and ELN on places with a extensive presence of illicit crops. That is, both the FARC and the ELN concentrate its presence and activism in scenarios with illicit crops, which invites us to think in a greater reliance on these as far as the continuation of the armed conflict exists. Second, security policies occurred in Colombia between 1998 and 2012, especially those addressed under the presidency of Andrés Pastrana (1998-2002) and Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010) have achieved significant results to minimize the presence guerrilla in central departments as Cundinamarca, Santander, Boyaca, Caldas, Quindio, Risaralda and much of the Atlantic coast. However, despite trying to military priorities, in the northeast of the country, especially in Arauca and Norte de Santander; in the southwest, especially in Cauca, Nariño, Huila and Tolima; and the axis Meta - Caquetá -Putumayo, trends in guerrilla activism not only have remained constant but also have increased. However, this does not affect the paramilitaries, which does not influence the dynamics of expulsion of the guerrillas on those departments where they both have presence in time and place. On the contrary, with the exception of Antioquia and parts of the Atlantic coast, the paramilitary factor has not influenced the geographical relocation of the guerrillas, especially the FARC. Finally, structural violence, although not discussed as explanatory and causal armed conflict factor, it is displayed as a variable to be taken into account to explain trends of change and continuity of direct violence of the guerrillas as those departments more presence of FARC and ELN are, also, some of the departments with lower levels of economic and social development of the country. They are also largely departments with deep roots of illicit crops, which is just emerging as a binomial high added value in order to attract more guerrilla presence and hinder greater success in regard to security policies. All this is reached by analyzing the maps provided by the Observatory on Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law attached, until 2014, to the vice presidency, and through questionnaires to 221 municipalities of the country and in-depth interviews with actors involved in the armed conflict, both the government level and the security forces, as the FARC, the ELN, the AUC or the guaranteeing of human rights bodies - ombudsmen - local institutions.
The main purpose of this doctoral thesis is to understand what changes have occurred in the geography of violence stemming from Colombia's armed conflict between 1998 and 2012. Thus, the fundamental hypothesis is to establish an increasing peripheralization the armed conflict that has increased and entrenched over the years, in which armed violence of the FARC and the ELN appears in predominantly border scenarios. This is corroborated on four trends that are analyzed in depth, occupying much of the thesis. First, the largest gathering of the guerrillas of the FARC and ELN on places with a extensive presence of illicit crops. That is, both the FARC and the ELN concentrate its presence and activism in scenarios with illicit crops, which invites us to think in a greater reliance on these as far as the continuation of the armed conflict exists. Second, security policies occurred in Colombia between 1998 and 2012, especially those addressed under the presidency of Andrés Pastrana (1998-2002) and Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010) have achieved significant results to minimize the presence guerrilla in central departments as Cundinamarca, Santander, Boyaca, Caldas, Quindio, Risaralda and much of the Atlantic coast. However, despite trying to military priorities, in the northeast of the country, especially in Arauca and Norte de Santander; in the southwest, especially in Cauca, Nariño, Huila and Tolima; and the axis Meta - Caquetá -Putumayo, trends in guerrilla activism not only have remained constant but also have increased. However, this does not affect the paramilitaries, which does not influence the dynamics of expulsion of the guerrillas on those departments where they both have presence in time and place. On the contrary, with the exception of Antioquia and parts of the Atlantic coast, the paramilitary factor has not influenced the geographical relocation of the guerrillas, especially the FARC. Finally, structural violence, although not discussed as explanatory and causal armed conflict factor, it is displayed as a variable to be taken into account to explain trends of change and continuity of direct violence of the guerrillas as those departments more presence of FARC and ELN are, also, some of the departments with lower levels of economic and social development of the country. They are also largely departments with deep roots of illicit crops, which is just emerging as a binomial high added value in order to attract more guerrilla presence and hinder greater success in regard to security policies. All this is reached by analyzing the maps provided by the Observatory on Human Rights and International Humanitarian Law attached, until 2014, to the vice presidency, and through questionnaires to 221 municipalities of the country and in-depth interviews with actors involved in the armed conflict, both the government level and the security forces, as the FARC, the ELN, the AUC or the guaranteeing of human rights bodies - ombudsmen - local institutions.
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociología, Departamento de Ciencia Política y de la Administración III (Teorías y Formas Políticas y Geografía Humana), leída el 11-01-2016