Publication: Remesas y su relación con variables macroeconómicas: efecto sobre el crecimiento económico, desempleo e inflación en Colombia : 2001-2010
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2016-04-26
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
Los importantes flujos de remesas que entraron a Colombia en el periodo 2001-2010 se convirtieron para muchas familias en un ingreso económico compensatorio o complementario para sobrellevar los problemas de desempleo en el país, favoreciendo sus condiciones de vida y por ende su bienestar a través del consumo de bienes y servicios esenciales para su manutención y sostenimiento principalmente en alimentos, educación, salud, vivienda, pago de deudas, entre otros. Por lo anterior, cabría esperar que los altos volúmenes de remesas que ingresaron al país en dicho periodo de tiempo y que se convirtieron en ingresos disponibles para la utilización por parte de las familias receptoras, vía demanda interna, hayan tenido efecto sobre la economía colombiana. Sin embargo, no es claro el efecto que estos flujos tuvieron sobre variables macroeconómicas como crecimiento económico, desempleo e inflación, ya sea a nivel nacional o regional. Algunos estudios afirman que el efecto puede estar relacionado con el monto de las remesas, el tamaño de la economía de la región, el uso que se le dio a los dineros recibidos, periodicidad de los giros, los mecanismos de transmisión y la política económica, entre otros. Por los aspectos antes mencionados, el objetivo del estudio fue determinar, en primer lugar la relación de las remesas sobre el crecimiento económico, el desempleo y la inflación a nivel nacional y regional y posteriormente a través de modelos de regresión múltiple, estimar el efecto de las relaciones múltiples de remesas familiares, desempleo e inflación (variables independientes) sobre el crecimiento económico a nivel nacional y departamental en dicho periodo de tiempo. Para ello, se utilizaron los datos obtenidos en el Banco de la República y el DANE, ambas entidades gubernamentales. Los resultados obtenidos en este estudio se analizaron a la luz de las características sociodemográficas y culturales de los departamentos estudiados. Esta investigación proporciona evidencia para avanzar en la comprensión del fenómeno de las remesas en Colombia, de una manera más integral...
The important flows of remittances that entered to Colombia in the period of time, 2001-2010, became for many families in an economic compensatory or supplementary income to face with the problems of unemployment in the country, relieving their living conditions and thus their welfare, through consumption of essential goods and services for maintenance and sustenance, mainly in food, education, health, housing, payment of debts, among others. Therefore, would expect that high volumes of remittances that entered to the country in that period of time and became in income available for be used by families, via domestic demand, have had an effect on the Colombian economy. However, it is not clear what effect these flows had on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, unemployment and inflation, either at national or regional level. Some studies claim that the effect could be related to the amount of remittances, the size of the economy of the region, the use given to the remittances received, frequency of the orders, transmission mechanisms and economic policy, among others. By the aspects mentioned before, the aim of this study was to determine, first the relationship of remittances on economic growth, unemployment and inflation at national and regional level. Then, through multiple regression models, estimate the effect of the multiple relationships of family remittances, unemployment and inflation (as independent variables) on economic growth at the national and departmental level in the period studied. To do this study, it was used data from the Banco de la Republica (Bank of the Republic) and the DANE, both are government entities. The results obtained in this study were analyzed considering socio-demographic and cultural characteristics of the departments studied. This research provides evidence to advance the understanding of the phenomenon of remittances in Colombia, in a more comprehensive way...
The important flows of remittances that entered to Colombia in the period of time, 2001-2010, became for many families in an economic compensatory or supplementary income to face with the problems of unemployment in the country, relieving their living conditions and thus their welfare, through consumption of essential goods and services for maintenance and sustenance, mainly in food, education, health, housing, payment of debts, among others. Therefore, would expect that high volumes of remittances that entered to the country in that period of time and became in income available for be used by families, via domestic demand, have had an effect on the Colombian economy. However, it is not clear what effect these flows had on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, unemployment and inflation, either at national or regional level. Some studies claim that the effect could be related to the amount of remittances, the size of the economy of the region, the use given to the remittances received, frequency of the orders, transmission mechanisms and economic policy, among others. By the aspects mentioned before, the aim of this study was to determine, first the relationship of remittances on economic growth, unemployment and inflation at national and regional level. Then, through multiple regression models, estimate the effect of the multiple relationships of family remittances, unemployment and inflation (as independent variables) on economic growth at the national and departmental level in the period studied. To do this study, it was used data from the Banco de la Republica (Bank of the Republic) and the DANE, both are government entities. The results obtained in this study were analyzed considering socio-demographic and cultural characteristics of the departments studied. This research provides evidence to advance the understanding of the phenomenon of remittances in Colombia, in a more comprehensive way...
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Aplicada I (Economía Internacional y Desarrollo), leída el 14-12-2015