Publication: Integración del Efecto Frontera y la Resistencia Multilateral en las Medidas de Accesibilidad: una herramienta para la evaluación de proyectos de infraestructuras de transporte
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2017-04-27
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Abstract
El indicador de potencial de mercado es una herramienta que se aplica frecuentemente en la planificación del transporte con el objetivo de evaluar los efectos económicos y territoriales que pueden provocar las mejoras en las infraestructuras. Este proceso se basa en el supuesto de que el aumento de la accesibilidad de una región está directamente relacionado con el aumento de sus exportaciones, y por ende, puede favorecer también al resto de sus actividades económicas. Interpretar la accesibilidad a partir del potencial de mercado significa establecer una relación positiva del nivel de oportunidades entre un origen i y un destino j con la masa del destino, e inversamente proporcional a la distancia o al tiempo de viaje entre ambos. Parte de la aceptación de la especificación del potencial de mercado se basa en su simplicidad estructural y operativa. La desventaja de esta condición es que se trata de un modelo que ignora efectos tales como el impacto de la competencia entre rivales o las barreas al comercio, los cuales se han mostrado significativos en los modelos de interacción espacial para el comercio. Esta situación implica que los resultados que se obtienen pueden reflejar desviaciones respecto a la realidad. Para aportar alternativas, esta tesis mejora el modelo clásico de potencial de mercado hacia una especificación más completa, integrando la competencia entre rivales y las barreras al comercio, y calibrando simultáneamente el impacto de la distancia con datos reales de comercio internacional que se aplican al caso concreto de los países Miembros de la Unión Europea (UE). Adicionalmente, la construcción de escenarios y el uso de análisis spillover valida el modelo propuesto como un instrumento para la evaluación de proyectos de infraestructuras de transporte de alto valor explicativo y de mayor ajuste a la realidad que los habitualmente utilizados. La obtención de este resultado se consigue a partir de la desagregación previa de la investigación en múltiples tareas. Por un lado, se analiza el concepto de accesibilidad y los distintos tipos de medidas desarrollados en la literatura para pasar después a la selección y justificación de un indicador efectivo en la evaluación de proyectos de transporte, como es el potencial de mercado. Con esta información, se construye la base teórica que sustenta la nueva especificación mejorada. Adicionalmente, se establece como prioritaria la perspectiva espacial, es decir, que el modelo permita un análisis territorial de los resultados, por ejemplo, en términos de cohesión o de distribución del impacto...
The market potential indicator is frequently applied in transport planning in order to assess the economic and territorial effects derived from infrastructure improvements. This process is rooted on the principle that the increase of accessibility in a region is directly related to the increase in exports, and thus, can also help boosting the rest of their economic activities. Understanding accessibility through the market potential means to establish a positive relationship between the opportunities of an origin i and a destination j and the mass of the destination, and inversely proportional to the distance or the travel time between the two. Part of the wide acceptance of the market potential specification is based on its structural and operational simplicity. The disadvantage of this condition is that this model ignores some effects, like the impact of the competition between rivals or the barriers to trade, which proved significant in spatial interaction trade models. This situation implies that the obtained results may reflect deviations from reality. To provide alternatives, this thesis enhances the classic model of market potential towards a more complete specification. This is done with the integration of the competition between rivals and barriers to trade while calibrating the impact of distance with real data on international trade between the members of the European Union (EU). In addition, the construction of scenarios and spillover analysis validates the proposed model as a high performance instrument for the evaluation of transport infrastructure projects, leading to more realistic results than the classic ones. The research was divided into multiple tasks in order to achieve this result. First, the concept of accessibility and the different types of measures developed in the literature was thoroughly analysed. The main goal was to select and justify an effective indicator for the evaluation of transport projects, such as market potential. This fact builds the theoretical basis that underpins the new improved specification. In addition, the spatial perspective is set as a priority, thus the model allows for a territorial analysis of the results, for example in terms of territorial cohesion or spatial distribution of the impact...
The market potential indicator is frequently applied in transport planning in order to assess the economic and territorial effects derived from infrastructure improvements. This process is rooted on the principle that the increase of accessibility in a region is directly related to the increase in exports, and thus, can also help boosting the rest of their economic activities. Understanding accessibility through the market potential means to establish a positive relationship between the opportunities of an origin i and a destination j and the mass of the destination, and inversely proportional to the distance or the travel time between the two. Part of the wide acceptance of the market potential specification is based on its structural and operational simplicity. The disadvantage of this condition is that this model ignores some effects, like the impact of the competition between rivals or the barriers to trade, which proved significant in spatial interaction trade models. This situation implies that the obtained results may reflect deviations from reality. To provide alternatives, this thesis enhances the classic model of market potential towards a more complete specification. This is done with the integration of the competition between rivals and barriers to trade while calibrating the impact of distance with real data on international trade between the members of the European Union (EU). In addition, the construction of scenarios and spillover analysis validates the proposed model as a high performance instrument for the evaluation of transport infrastructure projects, leading to more realistic results than the classic ones. The research was divided into multiple tasks in order to achieve this result. First, the concept of accessibility and the different types of measures developed in the literature was thoroughly analysed. The main goal was to select and justify an effective indicator for the evaluation of transport projects, such as market potential. This fact builds the theoretical basis that underpins the new improved specification. In addition, the spatial perspective is set as a priority, thus the model allows for a territorial analysis of the results, for example in terms of territorial cohesion or spatial distribution of the impact...
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Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Geografía e Historia, leída el 07/03/2016